Dell Technologies ended its fiscal second quarter on July 31 with $95 billion in unfilled AI server orders. That backlog has become the central number in how investors think about Dell stock, because it represents demand customers have already committed to, not just demand the company hopes to win.
The quarter’s order intake explains how the pile grew so fast. Dell booked a record $60.9 billion in AI server orders during the period but recognized only $16.4 billion in AI server revenue. With new orders arriving at nearly four times the pace of shipments, the gap flowed straight into the backlog.
The bigger question is what that demand is worth to shareholders after a 347% gain in the stock so far in 2026. One bullish long-range scenario circulating among investors sees the shares nearly tripling by 2030, but it depends on growth assumptions that deserve a closer look.
Where Dell’s Growth Is Coming From
Dell’s Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), the unit that sells servers, networking and storage, posted record revenue of $31.8 billion in fiscal Q2. That was up 89% from a year earlier, with AI servers accounting for most of the increase.
The numbers behind the backlog
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| ISG revenue, fiscal Q2 2027 | $31.8 billion (up 89% year over year) |
| AI server orders, fiscal Q2 | $60.9 billion (record) |
| AI server revenue recognized, fiscal Q2 | $16.4 billion |
| AI server backlog at quarter end | $95 billion |
| AI server orders, trailing 12 months | $131.7 billion |
| Fiscal 2027 AI server revenue outlook | $74 billion (about 3x fiscal 2026) |
Dell has also said its pipeline of potential AI server orders is several times the size of the current backlog. That is a management estimate rather than booked business, but it suggests the company does not see demand peaking soon.
Gaining ground on rivals
According to the report, Dell’s share of AI server revenue climbed to 17% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 5% a year earlier. The gains came from both large enterprises and neocloud providers, the newer companies that build and rent out GPU computing capacity.
How Large the AI Server Market Could Become
Goldman Sachs now projects the AI server market could generate $1.24 trillion in revenue in 2030, up from its earlier forecast of $961 billion. The bank tied the revision to heavy spending on AI infrastructure and expects both higher volumes and rising prices to drive growth. It lifted its average selling price estimate for AI servers by 15%.
What a 20% share would mean
If Dell held a 20% share of Goldman’s projected 2030 market, its annual AI server revenue would reach about $248 billion. That would be more than three times the $74 billion it expects in the current fiscal year. Holding that share is not guaranteed, since competitors are chasing the same customers.
What Dell Stock Costs Today
Even after this year’s rally, Dell traded at roughly 32 times trailing earnings and 21 times forward earnings at the time of the original analysis. The Nasdaq-100 carried a forward multiple of about 24, so Dell was priced at a modest discount to the broader tech benchmark.
The company expects non-GAAP earnings per share to rise 148% in fiscal 2027 to $25.50. Analysts expect that growth rate to slow over the following two fiscal years.
The 2030 price scenario, step by step
| Assumption | Value |
|---|---|
| EPS in fiscal 2029 | $34.62 |
| Annual EPS growth, fiscal 2030 and 2031 | 38% |
| Resulting EPS, fiscal 2031 (ends January 2031) | $65.93 |
| Assumed price-to-earnings multiple | 24x |
| Implied share price | about $1,582 |
The original analysis describes that result as roughly three times the stock’s price at the time of writing. The math holds up, but the 38% growth rate is the load-bearing assumption, and the source does not tie it clearly to a published consensus figure.
How sensitive the outcome is
Small changes move the result a lot. Using the same fiscal 2029 starting point, 20% annual growth instead of 38% would produce EPS of about $49.85 in fiscal 2031, or roughly $1,196 per share at 24 times earnings. Keeping 38% growth but applying Dell’s current forward multiple of 21 would put the stock near $1,385. These are illustrative calculations, not forecasts.
Risks the Bull Case Leaves Out
A backlog is not revenue until products ship, and large orders can be delayed or rescheduled if customers change their spending plans or component supply tightens. AI servers have also historically carried thinner margins than some of Dell’s other hardware, so rapid revenue growth does not translate one-for-one into profit growth. Finally, much of the demand depends on a relatively small group of large buyers whose capital spending could slow if AI returns disappoint.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and This content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
